The Hostile Planning Cycle
As we approach the Holiday Season, many of us will be traveling and shopping. This time of year you will be distracted and preoccupied. Stay vigilant. Here are some things to consider while out and about.
Just as we, the Agent In Charge, should have a process and a plan for scanning our environment to pick up anomalies, the Bad Guy has a process to find Easy Targets as well. When I do our Situational Awareness lecture I cover the “Cooper Color Code”, the “OODA Loop” and how to add awareness and planning into your daily lives without being “Paranoid.” The Bad Guy uses something called “The Hostile Planning Cycle” to pick the Person, Time and Place to do “bad guy things.” Understanding this cycle can help you spot, disrupt, and prevent potential threats, especially in vulnerable situations - like walking through a dark parking lot. It’s always best to have a heightened level of awareness to avoid a situation, than be caught off guard.
Before I go on - ALWAYS HAVE A GOOD FLASHLIGHT READILY AVAILABLE!!! I can not emphasize this enough. You can take a flashlight with you everywhere, including through a TSA checkpoint, (with some restrictions). The light app on your phone is not a good flashlight! A flashlight will help you to illuminate any area that you are unsure of, like spotting a tripping hazard. Also shining 1500 lumens into someone's face will distract them and identify a possible Bad Guy. Remember a Bad Guy doesn't want 3 things: 1) To Get Caught, 2) To Get Hurt, or 3)To Take Too Long. Illuminating your area and path can send a signal to a bad guy to pick another target. More on this topic in our “Low Light Firearms Class” coming up next year.
The first stage of the “Hostile Planning Cycle” is Target Selection. This is where a potential criminal scans the environment for someone who seems distracted or vulnerable. In order to reduce your vulnerability as a target: walk confidently, avoid distractions like your phone, and choose well-lit, busy areas to park and walk. If you’re in a parking garage, have your flashlight and key’s out. When you get close to your car, scan your environment, check in with your instincts and see if anything is standing out. If you have luggage, packages or children, YOU WILL BE DISTRACTED. This is when you are most vulnerable and a Bad Guy knows this.
Side note: Be extremely cautious in mall parking garages or parking lots for people offering to sell you something or sample anything, it could be a tactic to distract you.
Once a target is identified, criminals typically move to Surveillance, observing what a potential victim is doing, looking for an opportune moment, IE loading luggage or packages into your vehicle. Staying alert and making eye contact with people nearby, using your flashlight can signal awareness and can deter potential observers. If you notice someone lingering or observing you, alter your path, move to a more populated area, or use your flashlight to signal that you’re aware of them, ask them in a firm voice “Can I help you?” If you alter your path and the potential observer alters his as well, to mirror yours, this is a Red Flag and you might be his target. At this point you will need to make a decision, and my thought is “to make the safest decision possible.” There are too many scenarios to give you a plan, but in general- Keep moving and keep thinking.
Next, during Planning and Preparation, the Bad Guy prepares their approach, possibly by positioning themselves to intercept you. By this time you should have your keys out to avoid fumbling as you reach your car. A quick scan around and under your vehicle with a flashlight adds an extra layer of security. In Rehearsal, a hostile individual might engage in repetitive or suspicious actions to test your awareness or see if you’ll notice. If someone is behaving unusually, trust your instincts, keep thinking and consider going back inside or notifying security. Most security professionals will be more than happy to walk you to your car.
The Execution phase occurs if the attacker initiates an approach or an attack. If you sense an imminent threat, what is the safest option right now? Is it, getting in your car and locking the doors, using your horn to attract attention, or, in the worst scenario, defending yourself? A Bad Guy can close a 21 ft distance in around 1.5 seconds, and that will not give you enough time to get your belongings into your car and lock the doors. Remember: property can be replaced.
The final phase is the Escape or Exploitation. This is when the attacker plans their exit to avoid capture or continue exploiting their actions. If they are escaping, do your best to be a good witness and report any details to the authorities. If the situation has escalated to the exploitation phase, there is a big problem. A Bad guy wants 1 of 3 things: 1) body, 2) property, 3) life. Again there are too many variables to give you a plan at this point, but chances are you'll need to defend yourself. At all costs avoid being taken to a secondary crime scene.
All this can happen in a few seconds, violence loves speed and surprise. Recognizing and disrupting the Hostile Planning Cycle in real-time can give you the necessary time and space to make you and your family a Hard Target.
The final phase is the Escape or Exploitation. This is when the attacker plans their exit to avoid capture or continue exploiting their actions. If they are escaping, do your best to be a good witness and report any details to the authorities.
